Brandon Smith Fantasy & SC 2023

Supercoach Prognosis

We`ll start with Supercoach which we found to be a quite straight forward decision.

Price: $478,200 Priced at: 45 Pts

Hooker Games (Reg Season NRL) To Date - 33 Games, Avg 62.9 Pts, 60 Minutes, 33.3% TSR Includes 20 Games 2021, Avg 68.6, 50% TSR

2020 & 2021 - 12 Games, 56.1 Pts, 59.5 Minutes, 8.3% TSR

Even without Excess Try Noise from the bizarre 6 Again Fest Game of 2021, there`s a clear 10 Pts Value with plenty of upside beyond.

We dont think Brandon will be an 80 Minute player, hes never had the Motor for it - We expect him to average around 65 Minutes over the course of the season.

He has an early Bye Rd 4 with his 2nd Bye in Rd 13 and could be prime to upgrade by then should he not look like a Keeper.

Fantasy Prognosis

Price: $585K Priced at: 40 Pts

Hooker Games (Reg Season NRL) To Date - 33 Games, Avg 47.8 Pts, 60 Minutes, 33.3% TSR Includes 20 Games 2021, Avg 51.9, 50% TSR

2020 & 2021 - 12 Games, 42.8 Pts, 59.5 Minutes, 8.3% TSR

Our expectation as per our Supercoach Prognosis is that Brandon will Average about 65 Minutes across the season. He just doesn`t have an 80 minute motor.

If we take a look at his Hooker Games of 55-70 minutes we get:

20 Games, 49.4 Points, 64.35 Minutes, 30% TSR, with all 6 of those Trys coming in the 2021 season.

His value is looking heavily Try Scoring dependent.

For an idea of how feasible a 30%+ TSR is....

Since 2015 there have been 134 Hooker Seasons of 10+ Games. Of those only 9 have achieved a TSR of 30%+

Brandon Smith 2021, 47.6% (21 Games) Jake Granville 2015, 45.5% (22 Games) Reece Robson 2020, 45.5% (11 Games) James Segeyaro 2015, 40.0% (15 Games) Harry Grant 2022, 38.9% (18 Games) Damien Cook 2022, 38.1% (21 Games) Reed Mahoney 2022, 32.0% (25 Games) Jacob Liddle 2021, 31.6% (19 Games) Robbie Farah 2019, 30.0% (20 Games)

Note - Since 2015 nobody has made this list twice! In fact, since 2015 there has only been one player to play a min 10 Hooker Games and have a TSR above 25% more than once!

Reece Robson 2020, 45.5% (22 Games) Reece Robson 2022, 28.0% (25Games) Reece Robson 2021, 25.0% (24Games)

As a Passionate Storm Supporter, who has always tuned in close to Brandons Fantasy Performances when playing 9 - I personally dont think he is what people are expecting.

To be creating gut churning missed the boat feelings, hed need to be averaging around 55+, and to do that hed need to be averaging in to the 70`s minutes wise.

Looking at his Draw - Dolphins at Suncorp Rd 1 should be pumped up and reasonable defensively for their inaugural match, followed by Warriors in Sydney. After that they have Souths, Bye, Eels, Storm, Sharks taking them through Rd 7.

I`ll likely leave him Rd 1, if he looks like being a week in week out 70+ minute player after Rd 1 then I can always make a Tweak Trade.

What you make of the numbers for yourself is completely your own decision though.

Published on 08-Feb-2023