Nat Butcher has been a go to player when presented with bigger role opportunities in the past, given his lower price from a bench dominated role, and his being a Base Point Monster.
He comes into 2023 on Sitili Tupouniua
s Right Edge for the first 11 Rounds or so. Unlike times gone by though, he has a hefty price tag. Our take in both Formats is much the same - On the surface, he looks good, under the hood theres some issues between price and expectation.
Something to be mindful of, Forwards suddenly having a big Try scoring year, rarely replicate it. Cameron Murray scored 10 Trys in 2019, since then he
s had seasons of 3, 5 and 3 Trys. Paul Vaughan scored 8 Trys in 2017, the most hes had in a season since has been 2.
Price: $580,000 Priced at: 55 Pts
Butcher`s Numbers over the last 4 seasons when playing Edge have been:
Games: 30 Minutes: 73 Average: 60.7 PPM: 0.82 Try Strike Rate: 36.7%
80 Minute Extrapolation: 66 Pts
10 Points Plus Value Ticked
However... Butcher whilst being a Base Point Monster has never generated much in Attacking Points prior to 2022. Looking at his Edge Games over the last 4 years where he didn`t score a Try, his Avg SC Score was 51.26 and his Avg Base Score was 51. We have to consider his 8 Trys from 14 Edge games in 2022 compared to his 3 Tries from 19 Edge Games from 2018-2021. As well as considering that 6 of those 8 Trys came in just 2 Games against Tigers and Broncos.
Looking at his 2019-2021 BR Numbers we get a Try Strike Rate of 18.8% which seems more reasonable and an average of 58.6 from 71 Minutes. We can add around 6.7 to that for 65.3 from 80 Minutes. Just reaching 10 Pts Value.
At the same time, Butchers average in 2022 in the 10 Edge Games he didn`t score in was 50.1 from 75 Minutes (0.67 PPM), lower than his 2019-2021 Tryless Edge Games PPM of 0.74.
It becomes quite likely that any value is going to be heavily Try Dependent.
His Draw over the first 11 Rounds has a bye and 6 Games against Top 4 contention Opponents.
There may be value there, but it
s likely best to look for safer value elsewhere given the price tag. Its also more likely that he just lucked out with a great year for Trys than he has suddenly become Beaver Menzies. Remember, the bulk came in just 2 games. It`s also worth remembering that forwards suddenly having a big scoring year rarely replicate it.
Price: $691K Priced at: 49 Pts
Including Week 1 of finals, Butcher played 15 Edge Games in 2022 at an average 76.5 Minutes for an average 53.2 Fantasy Points including 9 Trys.
9 Trys at a 60% Try Scoring Strike Rate. 6 of those came in just 2 Games against the Tigers and Broncos.
He is a Base Point Monster, but his normal is along the lines of his Game Total being pretty much his Base total. Looking at the 2022 Edge games he didn`t score a Try in: 10 Games; 75 Minutes; 47 Pts; 48.4 Base Points. His Negative Points actually outweighed his Attacking Points.
From 2019-2021, Butcher played 16 edge Games for 48.3 Points from an Average 70 Minutes including 3 Trys. At 80 Minutes that would be around 55 Pts.
In his 2019-2021 70+ Minute Edge Games we get 52.7 Pts from 78 Minutes over 11 Games.
There could be some value there? With his price tag and a draw including an early bye and 6 Games against Top 4 Contention Teams, in the approximate 11 Rd
s before Tupouniua returns, its probably best to look elsewhere, or invest this money in a cut price keeper potential player like Adam Elliott.
Published on 08-Feb-2023